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Post by dex on Mar 5, 2018 9:21:33 GMT -5
Well finally we get the answer.
Imagine this thread was initiated by The Nutty Professor on Jan 13th and one week shy of two months we get the goods from Joe Lunatic. How many Big East games had we played by Jan 13th? 3 or 4? Who cares? Apparently not the stunardo Mods here who allowed this folly to begin so early under their Free Speech Doctrine. Well I'm here to tell you that sometimes Free Speech is over-rated. The jolly good news however is to look back and see the experts here with egg on their face.
friara has easily won the week in terms of ncaa prognosticators...well done ...had this nailed without equivocations.
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Post by themick on Mar 5, 2018 9:25:47 GMT -5
Doesn’t Lunardi have one of the worst track records recently?
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Post by yankeefriar on Mar 5, 2018 9:39:24 GMT -5
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Post by friara on Mar 5, 2018 9:46:16 GMT -5
So we're not a lock...but I think even with a loss Thursday, we're in good shape. I think the 9-9 in quad 1/2 games is a very good look combined with 2 big wins....and the 3 ugly losses can be easily investigated.
1. Mid tenn St is probably behind us if they lose in Conf USA tourney. Maybe they get in, but they don't pass us. 2. gotta root for Nevada, URI/Bonnies, and Arizona in their tournies. 3. Lots of opps for Big12/SEC/ACC bubble teams to improve.
By the time we play on Thursday, we'll know. Pretty sure we were in lock status last year when the game against Creighton started based on what had happeened prior to our game. Could be the same. With that said, I still think we end up in Dayton with a loss.
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Post by birdman on Mar 5, 2018 10:27:23 GMT -5
We are definitely in a stronger position today than we were before Saturday's games, so that's very encouraging. Also, most of the highly ranked brackets from bracket matrix have us comfortably in at this point. The top ranked guy doesn't even have us in the last 4 byes category for example, so in that one scenario, there are at least 8 teams below us who are already in the tournament.
In addition to the conference tourneys FriarA pointed out above, we want Gonzaga to win the WCC. I think St. Mary's has probably done enough to get an at large bid, so let's hope they both win tonight and we don't have to sweat out tomorrow's title game.
Here are the teams to monitor and their potential opponents:
Notre Dame- Pitt on Tuesday. If and when they win that one, they get Virginia Tech on Wednesday and Duke on Thursday. I think they need all 3 Syracuse- Wake tomorrow, UNC on Wednesday. They need both Louisville- FSU on Wednesday, Virginia on Thursday. Might only need the FSU game, beating Virginia would definitely do it Oklahoma St- They have come from nowhere to make a late push. They get Oklahoma on Wednesday and Kansas Thursday. They already have beaten Kansas twice, doing it a third time probably is enough. Texas- Iowa St on Wednesday, Texas Tech on Thursday. They have to beat Iowa St, more likely than not need to beat Texas Tech too. Baylor- West Virginia on Thursday. Need to win that for sure Kansas St- TCU on Thursday. I think they are in the same position as us, probably safe with a loss. Butler- Seton Hall on Thursday. Similar to us as well. Marquette- DePaul on Wednesday, Villanova Thursday. They need both Alabama- Texas A&M Thursday, Auburn Friday. One win may do it, two will do it Arizona St- Colorado on Wednesday, Arizona Thursday. As long as they beat Colorado, they are fine. Washington/USC- Washington plays Oregon St on Wednesday, then USC on Thursday. That potential UW-USC game would be a play in game, can't see the loser getting through UCLA-Cal or Stanford on Thursday. A win should be sufficient Penn St and Nebraska- No games left, both should be in the NIT
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Post by jma79 on Mar 5, 2018 12:20:45 GMT -5
Butler's RPI will be 51 if they lose to Seton Hall. Ours will be 48 if we lose to Creighton and we will have a better SOS. I will be hissed if they get in and we don't.
I could see a scenario where Marquette, PC and Butler are 3 of the last 4 in. Does the committee have to bump one out of Dayton?? Bump could mean bump out altogether or give one a bye.
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Post by connfriar on Mar 5, 2018 12:27:03 GMT -5
AP Top Ten:
Nova #2 Xavier #3
And the Friars have beaten both. We are in.
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Post by dex on Mar 5, 2018 13:46:38 GMT -5
Some heavy lifting here by Mickey and The Birdman of FriarTown.
Some of you posters want cred? Take a lesson from these guys...tells me they don't shoot from the lip but are data centric. Love it
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Post by themick on Mar 5, 2018 14:33:32 GMT -5
Butler's RPI will be 51 if they lose to Seton Hall. Ours will be 48 if we lose to Creighton and we will have a better SOS. I will be hissed if they get in and we don't. I could see a scenario where Marquette, PC and Butler are 3 of the last 4 in. Does the committee have to bump one out of Dayton?? Bump could mean bump out altogether or give one a bye. All 80 brackets have Butler in.... You can argue they are better based on Quadrant 4... 6-0 vs 4-3 but it seems too wide a margin.. For reference, we have the WORST Quad 4 record in the RPI Top 125. Coulda/Woulda/Shoulda - If we are undefeated in Q4 like most teams in top 60 of RPI, our RPI would be 18.
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Post by thewalk on Mar 5, 2018 14:44:24 GMT -5
So a friar loss and butler win, I assume they pass us (which doesn't matter if they're already ahead). I guess Marquette is the only BE team that can do some damage to our bid and would require 2Ws to our 1L.
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Post by TheInfoMan on Mar 5, 2018 15:20:17 GMT -5
@painttouches Creighton finishes at No. 30 in the RPI going 1-1 and Saturday's win becomes a Q1 win. (and hurts bubble rival Providence badly).
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Post by TheInfoMan on Mar 5, 2018 15:31:34 GMT -5
John Templon @nybuckets Fan bases that don't like where they are in my NIT bracket ranked:
1. Providence 2. Nebraska 3. Oklahoma St. 4. LSU
John Templon @nybuckets I will note though that Providence is the 5th to last team in the Bracket Matrix right now. So I'm not the only person who thinks their resume is a little soft.
John Templon @nybuckets You know, I've been down on Providence all season. So I may be wrong, but almost all of their best wins are at home (besides at Marquette) and they have some troubling losses and I just find it hard to put them in the tournament.
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Post by themick on Mar 5, 2018 15:50:22 GMT -5
@painttouches Creighton finishes at No. 30 in the RPI going 1-1 and Saturday's win becomes a Q1 win. (and hurts bubble rival Providence badly). That makes our win over Creighton a Q1 win too. This guy's handle should be @paintsniffer
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Post by FriarNut on Mar 5, 2018 15:51:09 GMT -5
Games like today are why our Kenpom sucks. Could have opened that game up and won by 15-20. Yup,,definitely not a good showing to let a depleted SJU team take you to the final 2 minutes without their star guard
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Post by FriarNut on Mar 5, 2018 15:56:02 GMT -5
If chalk holds the rest of the way, we will be in the last 4 with a loss in the BET. last 4 means Dayton right?
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