mikemc
Friar Fanatic
Posts: 3,241
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Post by mikemc on Feb 24, 2024 19:45:59 GMT -5
Duke stinks
...gotta love friartown...
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Post by birdman on Feb 24, 2024 23:28:46 GMT -5
All things considered, a good day for us. We came into the day with the last bye according to bracket matrix. I think that was about right, as I feel confident we would have been in, but would have been 50-50 for a first four game.
Bad results: Wake beats Duke. Easily the worst result for us as Wake was right at the cut line and got its best win of the year. The only other bad outcomes were wins by Miss. St and Boise St., both of whom were ahead of us. Gonzaga is also likely to win and avoid a bad loss.
Mixed: Seton Hall beats Butler. I think this is the better outcome, but it is close. Colorado beats Utah. I definitely feel that this was better since Colorado was at home and Utah was probably ahead of them in the pecking order.
Good: Virginia, Texas A&M, Villanova, Oregon, Iowa, Drake, Ole Miss and Cincinnati all lose. Texas also loses, but was a few spots ahead of us. New Mexico was too, but took a horrendous loss at home to Air Force.
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Post by dmac80 on Feb 25, 2024 10:59:05 GMT -5
All things considered, a good day for us. We came into the day with the last bye according to bracket matrix. I think that was about right, as I feel confident we would have been in, but would have been 50-50 for a first four game. Bad results: Wake beats Duke. Easily the worst result for us as Wake was right at the cut line and got its best win of the year. The only other bad outcomes were wins by Miss. St and Boise St., both of whom were ahead of us. Gonzaga is also likely to win and avoid a bad loss. Mixed: Seton Hall beats Butler. I think this is the better outcome, but it is close. Colorado beats Utah. I definitely feel that this was better since Colorado was at home and Utah was probably ahead of them in the pecking order. Good: Virginia, Texas A&M, Villanova, Oregon, Iowa, Drake, Ole Miss and Cincinnati all lose. Texas also loses, but was a few spots ahead of us. New Mexico was too, but took a horrendous loss at home to Air Force. Awesome recap. Thank you birdman....I nominate you to help us with this rest of way. Deal?
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Post by birdman on Feb 25, 2024 11:30:51 GMT -5
Done.
Light day today. We would prefer Creighton and Marquette to win, especially Creighton. If they win, SJU is officially done and we want both Creighton and Marquette to be Q1a wins.
The only other games of note are Ohio state at Michigan state and Minnesota at Nebraska. Michigan state is at least a few spots ahead of us and a loss would drag them down a bit. Nebraska though is only just ahead of us and a loss would make it a toss up between us.
One interesting note on bracket matrix is that the AAC has two bids presently since USF is the top team, but unlikely to get an at large. We often see bid stealers this time of year, but if FAU were to win that league title, it would actually open a spot. BM also has Dayton getting the A-10 auto bid, but some like Lunardi have Richmond. Similar thing would happen in that league if Dayton wins the league championship. So while there could still be bid stealers to shrink the bubble, Lunardi’s projection could actually increase by as many as 2 bids.
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Post by dmac80 on Feb 25, 2024 20:43:46 GMT -5
Thanks birdman. Big win for Johnnies today. They're like Freddie Krueger. The scariest part- the rest of their schedule is charmin soft:
@butler @depaul Home vs Gtown
I guess we have to hold our noses and root for Butler, who is also clinging but has a soft schedule to close because otherwise the Johnnies are clear to finish 11-9 with a NET (as of now 6 spots above us 49).
We really need to do work here down the stretch guys. 2 and 2 may not do it.
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Post by dmac80 on Feb 25, 2024 21:03:21 GMT -5
Just plugged into Bart Torvik a simulation.... if we only go 2-2 we'll end up at 8-11 in Q1/Q2 and a NET around 56.he has us listed as a 11 seed.
If we go either 3-1 or 4-1 oddly he has us in both scenarios as 8 seed with NET 50. That's hard to believe if we win out and beat a top 5 UCONN it doesn't help us over 3-1? And beating 1 or 2 more top 10 teams and 1 or 2 more Q1s only improves our NET a couple spots? For that I question how reliable the simulator is.
If SJU wins out they'll end up also 8-11 Q1/Q2 (2-9 in Q1 tho) and NET 43! He has them as an 11 seed in that scenario.
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Post by yankeefriar on Feb 27, 2024 9:43:32 GMT -5
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Post by birdman on Feb 27, 2024 10:33:32 GMT -5
Notable games tonight:
Georgetown at Nova: Would be a crushing loss for Nova, a win doesn't really do anything Cincinnati at Houston: A Cincy win would put them back in consideration. A loss keeps them on the fringe of the bubble Pitt at Clemson: A win would be huge for Pitt. A loss keeps them on the outside Wisconsin at Indiana: No bubble impact, but need our win over Wisconsin to look impressive. They are 22 in NET presently Wake Forest at Notre Dame: This would be a bad loss for Wake Texas at Texas Tech: Texas has been faltering lately and this would be a big win for them Penn State at Iowa: A loss should eliminate Iowa for good. A win keeps them lurking a few spots out of the field Boise St at Air Force: A loss would be damaging for Boise Nevada at Colorado St: A win would be huge for Nevada, and a loss won't do much
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Post by dmac80 on Feb 27, 2024 11:32:54 GMT -5
We're going to be sweating bullets at 2-2 I can already sense it. And god forbid we end up getting bounced on Wed (or in a first game Thurs) at the BET.............. We're going to have a losing Q1/Q2 overall record at 2-2 unless we also do some work at the BET. We also better avoid the landmine of @gtown as that game is technically NOT a gimme. Imagine if Cooley knocks us out? Also Nova at home is going to be an all out war. I'm terrified. Sorry its the battered friar fan syndrome in me. I suppose this is supposed to be fun. LOL.
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thumper
Friar Fanatic
Posts: 3,963
Member is Online
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Post by thumper on Feb 27, 2024 11:39:42 GMT -5
Relax, dmac.
PIZZA,SODA,GRINDERS!!!
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Post by yankeefriar on Feb 28, 2024 13:19:24 GMT -5
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Post by yankeefriar on Feb 29, 2024 15:26:42 GMT -5
Last team in...Nova 1st team out.
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Post by birdman on Feb 29, 2024 19:26:35 GMT -5
Utah and Gonzaga both in action tonight. Utah needs to avoid a bad loss to Stanford and the zags have a chance for a decent road win at USF.
To say Saturday’s game is massive would be an understatement
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pc93
Junior
Posts: 629
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Post by pc93 on Feb 29, 2024 20:25:22 GMT -5
Last team in...Nova 1st team out. Lunardi and ESPN are correct to say both teams on are the knife's edge. They are likely to be in or out based on the result on Saturday (assuming they hold to already predicted results of last two regular season games). This ranking also seems something that will draw viewers to Fox's broadcast. More viewers watching PC at home beating Nova is good...fewer watching last night at moo is good too.
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Post by bradcav on Feb 29, 2024 20:35:46 GMT -5
You also have to look out how these bracketologies treat the bid thieves. Lunardi (and most of them) have USF and Richmond in because they are currently in first place even though they aren’t at large caliber
If Dayton and FAU win their leagues, that opens two more bubble spots
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