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Post by suspended poster on Nov 5, 2012 12:09:49 GMT -5
IMHO, most of the time, someone tells you they're an un-enrolled independent, they're voting republican. It's a nice way of saying in voting for Scott Brown and Romney. Brown himself has basically adopted this strategy. His entire campaign has been trying to convince people he's an independent. If Brown is re-elected (something I don't think will happen) he will have a difficult time explaining his pro-choice, gay rights, and new found love for John Kerry.
However, I could see Brown mount a formidable campaign for Governor in 2014, or challenge JK3 for Kerry's seat. Assuming Kerry takes the Sec. Of State Post.
Here is my predictions:
Obama 303 Electoral votes
Romney 235 Electoral votes
Warren 52%
Brown. 48%
JK3 61 %
Beilat 39%
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peeps
Signed LOI
Posts: 224
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Post by peeps on Nov 5, 2012 17:15:21 GMT -5
what are the thoughts about who WILL win tomorrow? i will be voting romney in RI (i know i know)... but i don't think he wins where he needs to. too much going against him.
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Post by wtm97 on Nov 6, 2012 6:14:38 GMT -5
Thanks for making my point Bob. Reality is claiming 'independence' these days quite often results in presumptuous labeling; finger pointing and derisive comments about being a 'fence-sitter'. It is unfortunate as my views are diverse...
For example, the very first thing I will vote YES on today is a YES on Question 3 in Massachusetts.
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Post by suspended poster on Nov 6, 2012 9:14:16 GMT -5
Thanks for making my point Bob. Reality is claiming 'independence' these days quite often results in presumptuous labeling; finger pointing and derisive comments about being a 'fence-sitter'. It is unfortunate as my views are diverse... For example, the very first thing I will vote YES on today is a YES on Question 3 in Massachusetts.How about the 2nd and 3rd thing, President and Senate? |
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Post by bipolarfriar on Nov 6, 2012 11:19:40 GMT -5
Bob, assuming Obama wins, Warren wins combo and Kerry becomes next Sec of state...who gets the Dem nod to take the seat? Deval? Kennedy?
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Post by Rock on Nov 6, 2012 12:08:51 GMT -5
BP and FD with their internet versions of a wet dream. Get a room boys! 
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Post by suspended poster on Nov 6, 2012 12:27:23 GMT -5
Bob, assuming Obama wins, Warren wins combo and Kerry becomes next Sec of state...who gets the Dem nod to take the seat? Deval? Kennedy? That will be interesting. JK3 would be too inexperienced for the special election. Maybe Deval would appoint Dukakis to serve until the special election. Then you would have Ed Markey, Capuano, and Steve Lynch vie for the seat. If Deval doesn't join Obama's cabinet. I would love to see him take the seat. Also, you could have Brown or Baker put up a good race for the other side. If Baker or Brown win the special election, then it would give JK3 some more experience to take back our seat. |
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Post by suspended poster on Nov 7, 2012 12:08:28 GMT -5
IMHO, most of the time, someone tells you they're an un-enrolled independent, they're voting republican. It's a nice way of saying in voting for Scott Brown and Romney. Brown himself has basically adopted this strategy. His entire campaign has been trying to convince people he's an independent. If Brown is re-elected (something I don't think will happen) he will have a difficult time explaining his pro-choice, gay rights, and new found love for John Kerry. However, I could see Brown mount a formidable campaign for Governor in 2014, or challenge JK3 for Kerry's seat. Assuming Kerry takes the Sec. Of State Post. Here is my predictions: Obama 303 Electoral votes Romney 235 Electoral votes Warren 52% Brown. 48% JK3 61 % Beilat 39% FriarD-SODAMUS |
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Post by tonton on Nov 7, 2012 16:14:54 GMT -5
Would it be snarky to point out that Obama got 63% of RI?
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Post by Rock on Nov 7, 2012 16:45:13 GMT -5
Tonton
Snarky? Not at all. But I guess it would diminish your insistence that McCain/Palin was such a bad ticket. I mean, afterall, even that lame ticket got more votes in '08 than R/R.
No doubt though that your impression is that its the job president Obama has done since 2008 that best explains his overwhelming victory yesterday. Even a dumb conservative like me can see that. The guy has done an incredible job and the appreciative American electorate made that statement resoundingly clear in the ballot booth. We're obviously lucky to have him.
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Post by tonton on Nov 7, 2012 17:17:25 GMT -5
You're right, Romney-Ryan must have been lamer than I thought.
I'm joking. I thought, and still think, they were a formidable ticket, but the fact is, there was nothing they could have said that would have got them in. Your party is giving away gigantic gobs of votes by ignoring minorities, educated women, and young people. Old white suburban and rural males aren't going to deliver wins.
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Post by bipolarfriar on Nov 7, 2012 18:50:29 GMT -5
Impressive calls, Whatley. You under clubbed the ev # but I cant think of anyone other than Nate Silver that had FLA as an Obama win. He went 50 for 50 this year. I think he was also one of the few that said Obama would win popular vote. Pretty solid. I had it 290-258. I thought Romney would play very well in VA.
Well, time to move on. The bright side is that we won't have to listen to media about up coming election until the primaries start in March....what a system...govern for 6 months, campaign for 18 months.
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Post by Rock on Nov 8, 2012 6:50:20 GMT -5
Tonton
Your comment that the GOP is ignoring minorities, throwing away this group and that group is the talking points of the media and the democrat operatives. I don't accept it one bit. I always find it interesting when the opposition try's to tell you why you lost. Cracks me up. Election shifts by a tenth here or there and somehow democrats are all about educating the GOP on what they did wrong. Spare me.
Romney lost this vote by inches (big inches when the prize is to win) and it had zip to do with granting amnesty, forgiving student loan debt or agreeing for taxpayers to pay for a women's contraception etc, etc. IMO it has to do with the electorate shifting - slightly but hugely in a close election - to those sold on bigger government vs those wishing for smaller government. That's the simplest and least antagonistic way I can say it. Frankly, I have no interest in the opinion of anyone on the left.
Good win, Obama has been all we were told he was in 2008. He has a remarkable record of achievement and the country is clearly lucky to have him in the Oval Office for another 4 years. His record speaks for itself and it sung a wonderful song to voters Tuesday. I thought he'd lose, I really did. 10 million bailed off his ship but unfortunately I thought it would have been more. I was wrong. No doubt. Congrats to him and to all the liberals.
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Post by suspended poster on Nov 8, 2012 9:03:07 GMT -5
If the GOP would move more to the center and away from the lunatic fringe of their party, then they would've won this election. The Bachmans, Mourdocks, Akins, Brownbacks, etc with their hateful agenda will never get the independent votes needed to elect a GOP President. It would've been interesting if Jon Huntsman received the nomination. He would've had appeal to independents and conservative democrats. He had the appeal of a Bill Weld/Pete Wilson type of Republican.
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Post by suspended poster on Nov 8, 2012 12:35:21 GMT -5
Would it be snarky to point out that Obama got 63% of RI? Here are some facts by the great Nate Silver. Facts are the GOP's kryptonite. |
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