Post by dex on Mar 13, 2018 9:13:20 GMT -5
NCAA TOURNAMENT
PICKING YOUR BRACKETS
Finding that Cinderella team won’t be easy
KEVIN MCNAMARA
Trae Young, one of the best freshman in the nation, will lead No. 10 seed Oklahoma against URI, a No. 7 seed, in the Midwest Region on Thursday.
Stephen F. Austin, led by TJ Holyfield, left, and John Comeaux, are Kevin McNamara’s pick for a surprise by a No. 14 seed. [AP / MICHAEL WYKE]
We are here to offer some help on this snowy, slushy, awful Tuesday in March.
No, we are not offering free shoveling advice or an extra snowblower. Call Bunky for that.
We are here to offer an assist, à la Kyron Cartwright or Trae Young, to a chore that can add a ray of sunshine to your day. It’s time to forget about Winter Storm Skylar for a moment and make some winning selections in your all-important NCAA Tournament bracket.
First some basic guidance. You will hear a lot about this being a wide-open year in college basketball. This is largely true. More top-10 teams lost to unranked teams this season than ever before. This means the very best teams have weaknesses that can be exploited, so don’t expect the Final Four to be the exclusive property of one and two seeds.
That said, locating the red-hot five or seven seed that can win four games and advance to San Antonio is next to impossible. The higher-seeded teams will win and heavily populate the Elite Eight. Instead of grinding over the 12- or 13-seed upset, worry about the Sweet 16 games between a four and five seed. In the last three tournaments, a 12 has upset a 5 three times. The 14 seed (three) has won more than the 13 (only once). The upset to target is the 11 over a 6, which has happened eight times in three years mainly because it’s often not much of an upset. That means Loyola-Chicago (28-5) and San Diego State this time around. My 14 seed surprise would be Stephen F. Austin — “the Father of Texas.”
Also, of the 12 teams to make the Final Four in the last three years, only three (two 7s, one 10) haven’t been ones, twos or threes. Pick accordingly.
I like the Southeastern Conference teams to do serious damage. The top of the ACC (Virginia, Duke, North Carolina) is elite as well. Villanova will again be tested in the second round and your friends at Providence College and the University of Rhode Island will be home for good by Monday morning.
EAST REGION
It’s easy for Big East people to say that Villanova has more than a few concerning holes after seeing the Wildcats require every ounce of energy to outlast Providence on Saturday night. The rest of the country knows better.
Villanova is the top offensive efficiency team in the country (really!), has the most experienced point guard in the tournament (Jalen Brunson) and is led by a coach who’s cut down the nets. Even so, this isn’t a team to fall in love with. Even as a one or two seed, Jay Wright’s teams have lost in the second round in three of the last four seasons. A similar roadblock awaits on Saturday with Alabama and its speedy guard Collin Sexton. They’ll survive but whoever escapes a Wichita State-West Virginia second-round war could pull the upset.
Elite 8: West Virginia-Arkansas. Final Four: West Virginia.
WEST REGION
It’s tough to fall for the other Big East lead dog, Xavier, but the core of this team advanced to the Elite Eight as an 11 seed last year. The Musketeers’ draw isn’t nearly as thorny as ‘Nova’s either. Gonzaga (30-4) isn’t as good as last season’s Final Four crew but remains strong. North Carolina has the ridiculous home-state edge (Charlotte) that it earned but watch out for Michigan when the teams reach Los Angeles.
Elite 8: Gonzaga-Michigan. Final Four: Michigan.
SOUTH REGION
Virginia is the nation’s top defensive team and an anomaly in a basketball world that is embracing the run-and-shoot 3-pointers game. What fans don’t appreciate is the Cavaliers make 39 percent of their 3s and while they have no star, they will be tough to beat in a grind-it-out game.
The NCAA overloaded this region with good teams. The potential Arizona-Kentucky second-round game features two Final Four-type teams and the winner will pose major problems for Virginia. Cincinnati and Tennessee are both very good and very physical.
Elite 8: Arizona-Tennessee. Final Four: Arizona.
MIDWEST REGION
Kansas is the most improved team in the country and navigated to yet another (14 in a row) Big 12 championship. The Jayhawks have too much firepower for Seton Hall but may just run into a live 12 seed — New Mexico State — in the Sweet 16.
The bottom of this bracket will be determined by a marquee Duke-Michigan State Sweet 16 game. It’s a flip of a coin between the only two teams in the country with top 100rated offenses and defenses.
Elite 8: Kansas-Duke. Final Four: Duke.
The rest of the bracket is up to you. Remember, don’t go crazy with those double-digits seeds. Also, it’s real hard to imagine the Rams beating Marvin Bagley or the Friars shocking what is just an OK Tar Heel team that will benefit greatly by playing (again) in its home state.
Now get on the phone and make sure your plow guy is rested and ready. It looks like he’s got a big job ahead of him.
—kmcnamar@ providencejournal.com On Twitter: @kevinmcnamara33
