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Post by dex on Mar 1, 2017 11:26:11 GMT -5
Thanks Birdman for that summary
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Post by pcfriarsfan94 on Mar 1, 2017 12:13:25 GMT -5
Games of note tonight:
URI at St. Joe's- URI is the first team out according to bracket matrix. A loss would be crushing to their chances and probably drop them from the RPI top 50. I think we want St. Joe's, but a URI win at least keeps our win over them a top 50 one.
VCU at Dayton- Both of these teams are probably safe, especially Dayton. We may have a shot at catching VCU on the S curve, so we want Dayton.
Louisville at Wake Forest- Wake is well regarded by the metrics, but has only one top 50 win. This would give them the marquee win they need. Go Louisville.
Kansas St. at TCU- Both of these teams have fallen off considerably. The loser likely is done, while the winner still has work to do. Don't really think it matters who wins for us.
Michigan at Northwestern- NU has been struggling, while Michigan is surging. Both are ahead of us, but hardly safe. I think Michigan is probably ahead of NU, so go Maize and Blue.
Michigan St at Illinois- Michigan St. is probably OK, while Illinois has pushed their way onto the bubble. An Illinois loss probably sinks them, while Michigan St. can afford the loss. We probably want MSU, but if Illinois wins, that just pushes MSU closer to us.
Nevada at San Joe St- I think Nevada needs to win the Mountain West, but a loss would eliminate any chance of an at large bid.
Washington St at USC- Landmine game for USC, much like our game last night. Go Cougars!
Auburn at Georgia- Georgia is probably out, but close to the cut line. They can ill afford to lose this game.
Ole Miss at Alabama- Ole Miss is probably not far behind Georgia. Alabama has recently fallen off the bubble, so we definitely want the Tide to roll here.
Marquette at X tonight as well. Hoping X wins. I think we want URI to win every game until they play one of VCU or Dayton in the A10 tourney. They aren't jumping us if we get to 21 wins and would need another win vs VCU/Dayton to have any chance of jumping us with 20 wins probably. Also keep an eye on the A-East tourney starting tonight...Vermont plays Maine tonight, but gets UMBC/UNH next round and likely one of Stony Brook/Albany in the championship. Maine game probably hurts their RPi, but the next two after should keep them top 50 I think...UNH can cement them selves into the top 150 with a win vs UMBC tonight.
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Post by dmac80 on Mar 1, 2017 12:21:55 GMT -5
I agree I think we root against MQ and SHU from here on out so we stay in front of them no? Also are we permanently ahead of X (in BE standings) at this point assuming both win out?
Is the A-East expected to get just their champion or would VT get at large and then their champion could be a bid stealer?
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Post by yankeefriar on Mar 1, 2017 12:32:47 GMT -5
I am rooting for Marquette to win out and us to beat St. John's. As stated above, that would lead to us being 10-8 in the league and a 3rd place finish. Ticket punched.
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Post by pcfriarsfan94 on Mar 1, 2017 12:43:07 GMT -5
Vermont isn't a threat for stealing a bid, they have to win their tourney.
I think our safest bet is to clearly jump Marq/SHU, but if they do win out, atleast those wins look better and the BE might actually get 7 teams in that scenario..at the same time, we want the Creighton win to look as legit as possible...
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Post by birdman on Mar 1, 2017 13:41:22 GMT -5
Obviously the committee looks at a lot of factors and takes many things into consideration, but for last year at least, top 50 wins was definitely one of the most important traits. I don't think a single prognosticator had Tulsa in the tourney last year, but the committee selected them and stated their 4 top 50 wins was something they valued. We currently have 6, which is a very strong number, but 3 of those (Seton Hall, URI, Vermont) could all slide out. As a result, we definitely want Vermont to win the A-East tourney. I agree that they have no chance at an at-large bid, but we want them to stay top 50. Seton Hall and URI are almost in a no lose situation for us. If they keep winning, we keep the extra top 50 wins. If they lose, it keeps us ahead of them in the pecking order. With Seton Hall only playing at Butler now before the conference tourney, we definitely want Butler to win that one.
I don't really care all that much about finishing 3rd in the league. The committee doesn't look at that at all, and it would mean Marquette picked up 2 great wins and would jump us on the S-curve. I would prefer they lose at least one, if not both games this week to ensure we are ahead of them. Creighton and Xavier are also both right around the top 25 of the RPI and it would be nice to have 3 top 25 wins as well. Regardless of everything that happens beyond our control, if we take care of St John's, we will be in an excellent position to land a bid. Winning one at the Garden would just cement it and keep us out of Dayton.
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Post by thewalk on Mar 1, 2017 13:44:31 GMT -5
Hope other bubble teams win? Not I...if you're listed among the 16 of last four byes to next four out, you can not lose enough.
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mikemc
Friar Fanatic
Posts: 3,240
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Post by mikemc on Mar 1, 2017 13:52:03 GMT -5
Agree with Walk, but PC still needs to win Saturday and 1 in the BET for this Friar fan to sleep at night.
....gotta love friartown...
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Post by drairf on Mar 1, 2017 14:03:52 GMT -5
Hope other bubble teams win? Not I...if you're listed among the 16 of last four byes to next four out, you can not lose enough. Agree. I love the BE and want it to be successful but now is the time to be selfish. I only care about PC getting to the dance. That's it.
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Post by wtm97 on Mar 1, 2017 14:20:01 GMT -5
CBS Jerry Palm noting Friars W last night also indicated we still have more work to do...
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Post by thewalk on Mar 1, 2017 14:23:48 GMT -5
..and he's been pro pc...
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Post by thewalk on Mar 1, 2017 15:22:45 GMT -5
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Post by pcfriarsfan94 on Mar 1, 2017 16:25:41 GMT -5
Thats weird they mention our NC SOS when teams like Marq, Gtech, KSU have much worse. And our NC SOS is comparable to teams like SHU, Cuse, USC, Northwestern,Wich st, Ill st, etc.
I do agree we need 2 more to feel good. I think we are 100% in with 2 more. 1 more and it's to close to say, and depends on how other bubble teams finish, if theres any bid stealers, and how teams like Gtown, Vermont, URI finish when it comes to top 100/50 wins.
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Post by whitefriar on Mar 1, 2017 16:27:38 GMT -5
"Extremely (and sneakily) important: Non-conference schedule strength
Without fail, at least once a year, the committee leaves out a team most consider to be right on the bubble because it didn’t heed its annual missive that teams should test themselves out of conference. As such, be on guard for teams ranked 200th or lower in RPI-measured non-conference schedule strength.
Notable recent snubs include 24-9 South Carolina, ranked 247th, in 2016; 23-9 SMU (302nd) in 2014; 27-6 Drexel (212th) in 2012; and 21-13 Colorado (331st) in 2011.
As of now there does not appear to be anyone quite as glaring, but 19-11 Providence (183rd) might want to keep winning to be safe."
Don't disagree that we need to keep winning to be safe but Marquette (248), Syracuse (195), Seton Hall (186), Vtech (299), Gtech (265) all with worse non-conference SOS than PC.
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Post by dmac80 on Mar 1, 2017 17:18:03 GMT -5
How could he then not mention all those other bubble teams with worse (or far worse) ? Unreal.
We need 2 folks or they'll screw us.
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