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Post by drairf on Feb 27, 2017 13:03:47 GMT -5
I can't believe we are having bubble discussions. Three weeks ago the NCAA hopes looked shot.
If we manage to beat DePaul I'll be a mess at MSG on Saturday.
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Post by dmac80 on Feb 27, 2017 13:07:25 GMT -5
I think we blow out DePaul tomorrow night. One of those laughers by the first media timeout of the second half. That said I'm biting my nails already about @ SJU at the garden.
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Post by dmac80 on Feb 27, 2017 13:55:08 GMT -5
I am thinking its better for us for it to be at MSG than carnesecca?
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Post by connfriar on Feb 27, 2017 14:07:34 GMT -5
It often feels as if the NCAA tourney bar is raised ever so slightly when the Friars are on the bubble...so, I think the Friars have to enter the BET with a 10-8 conference record...a sweep by either of our next two opponents will be heralded by the ACC-friendly media... How's that for paranoia? It's them, right?
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Post by drairf on Feb 27, 2017 14:16:03 GMT -5
I am thinking its better for us for it to be at MSG than carnesecca? Probably. I've been to a couple games at Carnesecca and it can get loud. I was there for the 2OT game that Cotton won near the buzzer.
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Post by dmac80 on Feb 27, 2017 14:20:45 GMT -5
I always choose a large NBA arena over a gym. The Gyms are more intimidating with a full and engaged crowd, IMO.
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Post by thewalk on Feb 27, 2017 14:38:02 GMT -5
problem with these last two is our rpi takes a hit just for playing them....although I now think if get these two we are probably in.
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Post by connfriar on Feb 27, 2017 15:03:56 GMT -5
You only think we probably get in with 20 wins and a 10-8 conference record?
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Post by jma79 on Feb 27, 2017 15:19:12 GMT -5
problem with these last two is our rpi takes a hit just for playing them....although I now think if get these two we are probably in. RPI won't take a hit if they win the next 2. In fact, it will go the other way. SOS takes a major hit though.
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mikemc
Friar Fanatic
Posts: 3,221
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Post by mikemc on Feb 27, 2017 15:48:48 GMT -5
It often feels as if the NCAA tourney bar is raised ever so slightly when the Friars are on the bubble...so, I think the Friars have to enter the BET with a 10-8 conference record...a sweep by either of our next two opponents will be heralded by the ACC-friendly media... How's that for paranoia? It's them, right? See my previous post saying however many wins you think PC needs, add 1 just to make sure because of past history. ....gotta love friartown...
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Post by thewalk on Feb 27, 2017 16:23:31 GMT -5
RPI goes up one spot if they win both...WLWL (Xavier/Nova) puts us at 56.
You can spin the last 5in/5out however you want. If you're pro PC you point to top 50Ws. If you're anti you point to Creighton and Xavier being inflated and losing to DePaul/BC plus a weak nonconf schedule. I was very confident Saturday night we'd be in with a 1-1 finish. Much less confident now.
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Post by suspended poster on Feb 27, 2017 16:37:47 GMT -5
RPI goes up one spot if they win both...WLWL (Xavier/Nova) puts us at 56. You can spin the last 5in/5out however you want. If you're pro PC you point to top 50Ws. If you're anti you point to Creighton and Xavier being inflated and losing to DePaul/BC plus a weak nonconf schedule. I was very confident Saturday night we'd be in with a 1-1 finish. Much less confident now. 1-1 finish with a BET win should be enough. 2-0 and BET loss still makes them a lock IMHO. I'm actually hoping for the latter scenario. I don't want our Friars to blow their load with BET. Rather have an one and done in the BET and a prolonged Nc2A run. Who would have thunk we be thinking of problems like this 6 years ago? It's extraordinary what Cooley has done for PC hoops.
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Post by dmac80 on Mar 1, 2017 9:27:05 GMT -5
I think I heard last night that Creighton has clinched 3rd. I believe if we win Sat we clinch 4th and 10-8. I think that punches the ticket, but I wouldn't breathe easy unless they won 1 at BET. Lose Sat and I think we're in trouble unless we go deep in BET. I wouldn't want to try that route. Still lots of work to do. SJU won't rollover Sat.
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Post by birdman on Mar 1, 2017 10:30:35 GMT -5
Games of note tonight:
URI at St. Joe's- URI is the first team out according to bracket matrix. A loss would be crushing to their chances and probably drop them from the RPI top 50. I think we want St. Joe's, but a URI win at least keeps our win over them a top 50 one.
VCU at Dayton- Both of these teams are probably safe, especially Dayton. We may have a shot at catching VCU on the S curve, so we want Dayton.
Louisville at Wake Forest- Wake is well regarded by the metrics, but has only one top 50 win. This would give them the marquee win they need. Go Louisville.
Kansas St. at TCU- Both of these teams have fallen off considerably. The loser likely is done, while the winner still has work to do. Don't really think it matters who wins for us.
Michigan at Northwestern- NU has been struggling, while Michigan is surging. Both are ahead of us, but hardly safe. I think Michigan is probably ahead of NU, so go Maize and Blue.
Michigan St at Illinois- Michigan St. is probably OK, while Illinois has pushed their way onto the bubble. An Illinois loss probably sinks them, while Michigan St. can afford the loss. We probably want MSU, but if Illinois wins, that just pushes MSU closer to us.
Nevada at San Joe St- I think Nevada needs to win the Mountain West, but a loss would eliminate any chance of an at large bid.
Washington St at USC- Landmine game for USC, much like our game last night. Go Cougars!
Auburn at Georgia- Georgia is probably out, but close to the cut line. They can ill afford to lose this game.
Ole Miss at Alabama- Ole Miss is probably not far behind Georgia. Alabama has recently fallen off the bubble, so we definitely want the Tide to roll here.
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Post by friarj on Mar 1, 2017 11:05:27 GMT -5
I think I heard last night that Creighton has clinched 3rd. I believe if we win Sat we clinch 4th and 10-8. I think that punches the ticket, but I wouldn't breathe easy unless they won 1 at BET. Lose Sat and I think we're in trouble unless we go deep in BET. I wouldn't want to try that route. Still lots of work to do. SJU won't rollover Sat. Nope, that is not accurate. If X wins tonight then Creighton has clinched. If Marquette wins tonight and then beats Creighton at home on Saturday and we beat the Johnnies then it's a 3 way tie and we have the tiebreaker in that scenario. If we end up in a two way tie with Creighton they win the tie breaker.
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